I think Nokia's strategy is to bet everything on windows 8 on both phones and tablets but also to offer better hardware (such as the camera), if this strategy fails then I would agree to call Nokia's strategy a failure. It's too soon to tell for now, the only sure thing is that Nokia's strategy so far in the smartphone market has been a succession of failure and bad decisions. Let's see how it turns out this time. There's also the conspiracy theory that Microsoft may buy them and that they're failing on purpose to lower their value...
The market for mobile Windows 8 is embryonic, and will remain so for longer than is relevant to a Nokia turnaround. Windows 8 is for high-spec phones, and will take several years to move down-market. It isn't the high-end phones that drive a million Android activations per day. Windows 8 tablets are even less able to turn Nokia around. The game therefore has already been won or lost.
This was foreseeable. Windows CE Core was never competitive with Linux. Killing Meego looks like a career-management move. It could have been a bridge, at the cost of casting some doubt on Windows as a strategy.
Nokia could still buy Jolla, but that would be a hell of a climbdown.
> The market for mobile Windows 8 is embryonic, and will remain so for longer than is relevant to a Nokia turnaround
This is the key problem. Even if Windows 8 is a wild success on phones we're probably talking 15% market share over the next 12 - 24 months. And that will be split between multiple OEMs. Nokia in its current form is just not sustainable long term on 5% market share, or even 10%. What they need to happen is so unlikely (say 30% market share of Windows 8 phones in 12 months) that it's truly insanity to bank the future of your company on it.
