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In my experience, the short run is always longer than we think, but the long run is always shorter than we think.


related, people over-estimate impacts in the short run and under-estimate them in the long run.

For example, a common 2015 sentiment: "self-driving cars are going to put everyone out of work imminently", compare to a common 2021 sentiment: "self-driving cars still aren't fully ready -- they likely never will be".


I have a slightly different experience, things always take longer and are less work than we think.


Two brilliant comments right away. Wow!




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