This isn't just optimistic thinking. A lot of the current American consumer laws, emissions standards etc. are de facto set by California rather than the Federal government.
That is more of a cost matrix, if CA demands a label on a product it is too costly to just make a CA only package so manufacturers will inform the entire nation that to the State of CA everything under the sun causes cancer....
However if you start outlawing entire segments of a product that does not mean that Ford is going to stop making Gas powered F150 that 49 other states Love, they will just stop selling them in CA and many CA Truck owners will drive to NV to buy one. I have a feeling the border will have a Nice Big Truck Dealership in short order
We already see that in some markets where for example my Tractor can not be sold in CA, but I bought it just fine in my state
Sure, we see that with stuff like tractors, lawn mowers, and occasionally motorcycles -- but 16 other states hopped on board with CA when it comes to passenger cars. "49 state cars" were commercially viable for a while, but I'm pretty sure that "34 state cars" don't exist...
16 other states are NOT on board with banning ICE vehicles, they have adopted CA's MPG and other emissions standards under the carve out that allows CA to set higher standards than the federal government. The only state that gets that authority, which itself should be repelled, either all states have the power or no state should, CA should not get a special carve out in the law
Yes, I know. The question proposed is whether California has enough influence to change that. Historically, it took about ~15 years for the rest of the country to fall in line with CA. I’m not suggesting they’ll adopt those standards now, but in 2050, maybe so.
Your point is sound, but don’t ignore the supply side. Manufacturers will produce more electric cars to satisfy the California market, driving down prices which will increase adoption elsewhere.
We’ve already seen this story. They make “compliance cars” that are sold (typically with a subsidy) and are impossible to get outside the target market. Now maybe California won’t actually allow IC vehicles in any shape or form and that will finally force hands. But I suspect that whatever is actually done will be watered down and have enough loopholes that it won’t.
