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Neither method guarantees the right answer, but it's a lot easier to get it wrong with a truth table.


Maybe you're right, I'm not fully convinced.

I mentioned a full truth table/decision tree because a long time ago these gave me the insight why switching is the right solution in the standard formulation of the problem, and they also illustrate why the problem is a purely deductive/logical problem whose solution does not require any inductive inference.

Then, to me it was a valuable lesson to learn that the Monty Hall problem does not reveal any perceived or real fundamental problem of probability theory.




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